What does predicting the economy got to do with predicting the World Cup winner? A lot if you listen to Swiss Bank UBS.
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In the World Cup 2006, the economists and analysts at the Wealth Management Research at UBS used the statistical model that enabled them to predict market trends and investment decisions and applied it to predict the World Cup winner.
They correctly predicted that Italy would be the champion. They also succeeded in getting six of the eight quarter-finalists correct. Their track record also included correctly forecasting three of the four semi-finalists.
UBS's model is a purely quantitative analysis and the criteria used are past performance, home advantage and teams' strength. Now let's discuss the model:
For past performance, so far seven nations have won the championship. (Brazil five times, Italy four times, Germany three times, Argentina and Uruguay two times, France and England one time each). So according to UBS, if you pick one of these seven teams, it appears to be a safe bet.
As for the home advantage, a third of the past world cups was won by the host country. Now:
# The weather is mild winter in South Africa and it appears that the host nation may not have the climate advantage. This applies similarly to the African nations in the finals.
# Some matches will be played at venues at high altitude. This is a clear advantage to the host and the South American teams like Brazil.
# In every tournament, there is speculation of referees favoring the Home team. Will there be many controversial calls helping the host?
# This being Africa's World Cup, there are many who wonder if an African nation will advance past the group stage into the quarter-finals for the first time. In every tournament, there will always be a team which will be the surprise package. Will this team come from Africa?
# And lastly, there is this "outside-of-Europe" syndrome. So far every World Cup had been won by either an European team or a South American side. No European team has won outside the comfort of their own continent. Now in South Africa, many pundits believe that the South American teams will have so-called ground advantage.
Regarding the strength of the teams, UBS took into consideration the FIFA ranking and the bookmakers' odds.
So which team has UBS picked to be WC 2010 champion? Brazil.
Well, your guess is as good as mine on which team will win. My trusted crystal ball tells me it is Spain.
In every World Cup, betting wise, it is a true challenge. The tournament is held every four years and qualification ends months before the ball is kicked in the first game of the finals. During this time, a lot can change in the football world.
World Cup means patriotic fervor comes into play. We all have passionate feelings for a certain team or a certain player which will determine our decision.
There are 32 teams in the finals so technically there are 32 potential winners. It is interesting to note some characteristics of these teams:
* Some teams have a good striking department with tons of firepower, but lacking everywhere else.
* Some teams have great talented players but have insane coaches.
* Some are perceived as perennial underachievers like Spain and England who seem to choke on the big stage.
* Some are tournament teams like Germany and Italy who may be underrated before the finals, but know how to grind out the results. Well this is according to past performances.
* Experts have expected Spain to win the last two World Cups - but they never have.
* England are going to win it every time according to the English - but they never do.
And there are some interesting statistics:
# No team has successfully defended the WC for a long while. Would the 2006 winner Italy be the exception? But Italy has an aging squad and may not be expected to last all the way. It is easier to reach the top, but much harder to stay there!
# Only once in the last 21 group games has the WC host lost, so would South Africa be the surprise package?
Why Spain will Win
With one loss in their last 46 matches, Spain arrived at South Africa as one of the best teams. They are the favorites to lift the World Cup on July 11. They are ahead of Brazil in the eyes of the bookmakers and pundits.
Spain (Rank 1) play in Group H against Chile (Rank 17), Switzerland (Rank 18) and Honduras (Rank 38).
They have been dubbed by the media in the past as "perennial underachiever". But the faith of their fans may be justified this time as they have completely turned the corner after winning Euro 2008. They had built on this success and thereafter had won all of their qualifying games for WC 2010, the first team to achieve such a record.
The Talents
Spain is a team with polished gems. They boast the talents of Fernando Torres and David Villa up front, Xavi and Andres Iniesta, Xabi Alonso and Cesc Fabregas in the middle, Carles Puyol and Gerrard Pique at the back, and Iker Casillas in goal. The reigning European champion look a formidable bunch.
They are stacked with players from the elite leagues in Europe like Barcelona and Real Madrid. The squad has so much depth that even the impressive Arsenal captain Fabregas, whom many consider as one of the best midfielders around, has to warm the 유로88 bench as a substitute.
A well balanced team is needed to have the consistency to get through such a high level tournament. Look at Argentina. The hope of the entire nation rests on the shoulders of young Messi. But Messi does not perform for his country like he does for Barcelona because he does not have the midfield marshals like Xavi and Iniesta behind him to pull the strings. And I shall leave the Argentina manager alone.
The Spanish squad has been largely unchanged from the team that won Euro 2008. Playing together for years can only foster better understanding on the pitch. The Spain of today exude calm and confidence. Wearing the European crown does such things to you.
Injury
Of course injury is a concern but this is the same for every team. Torres and Fabregas missed playing the tail end of the league due to injuries. To look on the bright side, this could actually be a blessing in disguise as they are totally rested for the World Cup.
Spain has a deep squad with comparatively able replacements. They are not a one or two men team like Ivory Coast relying on Drogba.
If injuries are inflicted on play-makers, any team will suffer like Rooney for England, Lucio and Kaka for Brazil, Messi for Argentina, Sneijder for Holland, etc. Serious injuries are a disaster for every team.
Pressure
Being ranked No. 1 and as hot favorites, expectations are high. Will Spain crack under the pressure?
Much was made out of their 2-0 defeat in the Confederations Cup semi-final to USA last June. This ended their 35 match streak without a loss. Some said Spain buckled under the pressure in that match because they wanted so much to break Brazil's 35 match streak of not suffering a loss. To many this is considered a great weakness to cave in to pressure.
A lot of teams lose matches that they should win. Most important is to learn a lesson from the loss. I believe the Spanish had indeed learned a valuable lesson. From then on, they had not lost again.
Mental Strength
Psychologists often stress that half of the battle is won in the head. Unfortunately, Spain have the unwanted tag of perennial choker on the big stage. In the past when the going gets tough, they have gone missing.
But now all the players pledged that they know their biggest enemy is themselves and they have developed greater self belief.
Complacency
There is a great threat of complacency when facing the likes of Honduras, Chile and Switzerland. I am confident that with an experienced coach in del Bosque, the players will know in no uncertain terms that a place in the second round is not a formality.
Assurance and over-confidence is divided by a very fine line. The last thing they will think is they have already won the match even before the ball is kicked.
How To Beat Spain
Some said the way to beat Spain is to follow the tactics of Jose Mourinho whose Inter Milan succeeded where virtually everybody failed by knocking Barcelona out of the Champions League. The tactic is to have the players defend deep in their own half, soaking up the pressure thrown at them and rely on swift counter-attack to score. Well, I am not sure whether there could be another "Special One' around.
Conclusion
If Spain keep their heads they will win World Cup 2010. If they don't, they are simply beaten by themselves.
One of the first songs I heard from Daniel Kandi was ''Make Me Believe'', and at the time of its release, I was blown away. Although this song is now over five years old, it is still one of my favourite songs. Since then, I have heard many other productions and remixes from Daniel.
What stands out about him is not that he has been producing for many years, but rather the fact that his productions have remained consistently high in quality. In the beginning of the year Daniel released his first-ever vocal track entitled ''Change the World''. Not only did this track have his trademark production style, but it also had great vocals. This was not the only first for Daniel of the year, however. He also produced a song with Jack Rowan titled "Arigatou'', which was very different to his other productions.
I initially contacted Daniel in December about doing an interview, but due to him being based in Denmark and DJing throughout the world, it has taken a while to get hold of him.
Biography
In recent years, very few Danish musicians have had the same impact on the world of electronic dance music as that of Daniel Kandi.
Now established as a leading name in the global trance scene, Daniel has been at the top of his game for many years having been responsible for some of the most memorable releases in recent memory, such as 'Breathe,' 'Change The World' 'Symphonica' and '#Trancefamily,' and he has lit up the globe with his stadium rocking performances.
One of only a select few artists to have been personally selected by Armin van Buuren to play at the A State of Trance 400, 450, 500 and 550 parties, Daniel has also performed at the biggest events in the world such as events such as Trance Energy, Global Gathering and Tomorrowland. Hailing from Denmark, Daniel has been around the world and back again, playing the largest club shows from Pacha, Buenos Aires to Ministry Of Sound London, and at leading cities such as Sydney, Los Angeles, Tokyo, Moscow, Singapore, Rio De Janeiro and everywhere in between, earning himself consecutive appearances in DJ Magazine's coveted 'Top 100 DJ's' poll.
Daniel is more than just a DJ; a leading artist on world renowned labels such as Anjunabeats, Armada and Enhanced, and his own Enhanced sub-label, Always Alive, he is heavily featured on renowned shows like A State Of Trance and Group Therapy, and considered an absolute fan favourite of the listeners of those shows with an endless list of Future Favourite / Record of the Week accolades to his name. Not to mention he is also the star of his own radio show, Always Alive, a showcase of the most recently discovered talent. It's not only on the airwaves that Daniel's productions have dominated, for you will be hard pressed to ever see the top download charts be absent of his breathtaking productions.
Such are his producer achievements; Daniel is one of the most in demand remixers for the trance genre, handpicked by the biggest names for remix treatment, such as Above & Beyond and Gareth Emery.
One of the most colourful artists in the scene, Daniel Kandi will continue to be one of its leading lights for many years to come.
Interview
Q: How Did Your Life Begin?
A: Well, let's go back to even before I was born. My mum was actually pregnant with me and she was on a small Cessna with my dad and a friend of hers in really bad weather. My dad's friend was the pilot, and he apparently didn't have a certificate or a permit to actually fly in bad weather, especially with a small Cessna. They were lucky enough to get hold of the agency control on the ground during this storm, and they were the ones who guided the pilot down safely. At one point, however, the pilot did actually say 'May Day' and stuff like that, as the engine went out during the landing. When my mum told me that - I think the first time was when I was about 12 or 13 - it made me realise how lucky I am because I wasn't really supposed to be around, obviously, if things had gone differently. That was a fun start to everything.
Growing up, I was very different. My mum kind of knew that already from, I think, when I was about age three or four... or something like that. It could be attributed to the fact that I was born not alive, if you can say so. See, my heart was out for about four minutes or something like that before they got it started again. Three or four minutes. That could have lead to me becoming not really retarded, but a bit special in ways. That's what we're actually trying to look into now: if I have got Asperger's Syndrome and stuff like that. I have always been a little bit special. Everybody who knows me, has seen me on video and sees me around the decks knows that I am a bit different to so many other people.
I did have a troubled start and got bullied a lot in school because I was that different. Besides that, I didn't have my real dad around from when I was about one year old until I was about nine. I had a step-dad instead. I always wondered who my real dad was, where does he live and stuff like that. I started talking to my real dad when I was about nine, and he ended up being a part of my life for about a year or so. The contact started slowly, but we got to talking again. He eventually flew me from the north part of Denmark over to him in Copenhagen, and I got to know him again. So I had a bit of a troublesome start, but I have learnt to live with how things were. Obviously you can't control that kind of stuff.
Q: What Motivated You To Become A DJ?
A: At first I really just wanted to make music. I started DJing at the age of thirteen when I entered a youth club that had a pool table, which is ironically one of my other passions. That's where I got to know pool and the music side of it, because of the disco tech they had there, where you could earn a license and stand there and play music for whoever would be there and stuff. That's essentially how I got into DJing. Right around that time, my aunt had a boyfriend who was a DJ himself in some of the local clubs in my town. He showed me a program called Cool Edit Pro, and that was really when I started sampling stuff and making my own tunes, even at the age of about thirteen. Back then, you didn't have any proper sequencer, the equipment was scarce and the computers were not really that good. You know how it was before we entered the 'Pentium Age', and it was really, really hard to run these programs.
Sometimes you would have the 'out of memory' problem because it was such an old PC, but it was fun actually to start out that way: the DJing, doing the sampling and trying to create dance music... that way, about thirteen, yeah.
Q: Tell Us About How You Feel The Moment Before You DJ?
A: Really it depends on the size of the gig and if it's the first time in a new territory. Of course when I go to play in London at Ministry [of Sound], it's always special because it's a great nightclub, and it's got a great reputation. It's been running for so, so many years. It's a picky crowd. They do like their trance, and they do like their house, but you have to keep within certain boundaries, I think, and just try to keep it really hard because that's what the crowd loves there. We are here in London now, and I'm going to play there tonight. I'm actually playing after John O'Callaghan, which is going to be tough because he plays really hard. I'm digging deep in my record box today to actually see what I should play because I don't want to play too soft. People might leave if I do that. So actually tonight I'm a little bit nervous, because even though I have been here before, this is going to be the hardest one to follow up on because I have always had someone play either softer or slower before me.
Last time I was here with Gareth Emery, it was quite easy because he just played really banging and progressive stuff. He actually left me a lot of room to build on his 34 BPM. That was a good gig, and that was streamed as well online. The reactions were also really good. Tonight I am a bit more nervous, but in general when you get to those big festivals, when you get to 5 or 6 thousand people at a mini outdoor festival or something like that, that's when I can start to get really nervous. I think if you get nervous though it's a good thing because it means you really want it as well, and you're not bored of it. Right before I DJ, I will try and compose myself. I will have a bottle of water and make sure all my stuff is in place. Then, I'll go on stage and try and feel the crowd in some sense and just take it from there.
Q: How Would You Describe The Experience Of DJing In Front Of Thousands Of People?
A: Well continuing on the last question, it's an amazing feeling. It's not as intimate, and you don't really get to talk to as many people in the crowd as, let's say, a crowd of about five or six hundred people, which is, like, the optimum. Anything between five hundred and a thousand people is where you get the ultimate contact because you can look at everybody and kind of try and point people out, especially when people have certain items and memorabilia with them. If they have a sign or tattoo or shirt with your logo on or something like that, it's easy to point out when you have those small crowds. When you get to the really huge crowds, however, if you play the right tune, there is nothing better than seeing five or six thousand people jumping up and down for just one track. That's an amazing feeling.
Q: How Did You Get Into Producing Dance Music?
A: I always wanted to make EDM in some sort of sense. When I started out, I was listening to a lot of crappy Euro-dance, if you can call it that. We have all been there, if you're about my age, 29. We all started making really, really dance-y music, like Euro-dance stuff, but wanted to make it more trance as well. In 1999 or 98, I think the first track I heard like this was Paul Van Dyk's - "For An Angel". That was one of them, because that got into the club charts in Denmark. It was amazing because nothing of trance had ever really got into the charts. Then Cosmic Gate's "Exploration Of Space" hit the radio waves, and that was really huge as well. That was before, as you obviously know. Cosmic Gate are now much more deep and progressive.
It was a good start. Then you had Mythos 'N DJ Cosmo, Above & Beyond and Cygnus X Superstring and stuff like that... those kinds of tracks. I got them on the Dream Dance compilations from Germany, and I kind of built from there. That's when I knew what I wanted to do. Oh yeah, obviously I can't forget ATB's "9pm till I come" - massive tune. So that's kind